Washington fishery managers waited until after the Columbia River's historical halfway point to determine whether the 2026 sockeye run was merely late. Instead, Bonneville Dam counts declined, confirming the Brewster season's cancellation.
BREWSTER, Wash. — Washington fishery managers said they would continue monitoring Columbia River sockeye after the run reached its historical halfway point, looking for evidence that the migration was merely delayed rather than dramatically smaller than forecast.
Instead, the opposite happened.
After June 27, when roughly half of the Columbia sockeye run has historically passed Bonneville Dam, daily fish counts declined instead of surging, confirming the late-season push many anglers hoped for never materialized.
The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife had expected 275,000 sockeye to return to the Columbia River mouth this year. By July 1, only 58,684 sockeye had crossed Bonneville Dam, according to Fish Passage Center data.
That left too few fish to support the Brewster Pool season, one of Washington’s most popular summer salmon fisheries.
The Miracle Push Never Came
For days, anglers watched Bonneville Dam counts and hoped the fish were holding below the dam.
That theory had some logic. Sockeye are sensitive to warm water, and high river temperatures can slow migration. A cooler weather pattern raised hopes that thousands of fish might move once conditions improved.
But the count never surged.
Bonneville recorded 4,812 sockeye on June 25, then 4,748 on June 26. On June 27, the historical midpoint for the Columbia run, passage fell to 3,062 fish.
The decline continued from there.
Only 1,952 sockeye crossed on June 28. Counts rose slightly to 2,829 on June 29, then dropped to 2,527 on June 30 and 2,074 on July 1.
Those numbers never came close to the 10,000- to 20,000-fish daily counts that would have changed the outlook.
Managers Called It Early
WDFW moved before the July 1 opener because the run was tracking far below expectations.
“Sockeye returns are tracking well-below what fishery managers forecasted before the season, which means fewer fish are available to support fisheries throughout the Columbia River system,” Quinten Daugherty, acting Columbia River fisheries manager for WDFW, said in the agency’s June 18 announcement.
“Sockeye returns are tracking well-below what fishery managers forecasted before the season, which means fewer fish are available to support fisheries throughout the Columbia River system.”
Quinten Daugherty, Acting Columbia River Fisheries Manager, WDFW
At the time, some anglers hoped the agency had acted too soon. The June 27 benchmark was still ahead, and cooler weather was on the way.
A week later, the numbers backed the decision.
The adult sockeye passage at Bonneville never showed the late surge needed to reopen Upper Columbia opportunity.
Brewster Loses More Than a Fishery
The closure hits Brewster at the center of its summer tourism season.
Brewster Pool draws anglers from across Washington and beyond. Guides, hotels, RV parks, restaurants, tackle shops and fuel stations all depend on the July sockeye rush.
A typical guided trip often runs about $250 per angler. With four clients aboard, one guide boat can generate about $1,000 a day before expenses.
A lost month can erase $28,000 or more in gross revenue for a single guide. A longer closure can push that loss above $40,000. Those guides are not going to rollover and take the hit, though some may try and rebook for next year or talk the clients into walleye or Lake Chelan trips instead.
The economic ripple effects will shatter many small businesses in those upper Columbia communities when you include lodging, meals, gas, ice, tackle or other spending that usually follows fishing traffic into town.
Skagit Sockeye Tell a Different Story
The Columbia closure does not mean all Washington sockeye are struggling.
On the west side of the Cascades, the Skagit River fishery remains open with a four-sockeye daily limit. Baker Lake is scheduled to open in July, supported by strong Baker River returns.
That contrast matters.
The Baker system uses a trap-and-haul program and has a much shorter migration route. Upper Columbia sockeye must travel hundreds of miles through a warmer, dammed river system before reaching spawning areas.
Different stocks are facing different conditions.
This year, the Skagit and Baker system is giving anglers one of the state’s brightest salmon stories. The Upper Columbia is giving Brewster one of its hardest summers.
What Happens Next
Lake Wenatchee remains a separate question. That fishery depends on whether adult sockeye passage at Tumwater Dam exceeds the 23,000-fish spawner escapement target.
For Brewster, the answer is clearer.
The fish anglers waited for never arrived.
Baker Lake has been seeing increasing pressure over the last few years and this year it seems guides and anglers without a Columbia River fishery will make the four or more hour trip to reap the four sockeye limit.
We strongly urge anglers to use their best judgement when approaching the fishery this year. This is not an easy fishery for beginners or river anglers to adjust to. This is a big lake with multiple drop points for the transport trucks, so do not feel the urge to pack popular launches in the north.
Like it or not however, the circus is coming to town.
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